Analysis of bitcoin price
On the evening of the 25th of January, the bitcoin price had come back to the level of the week’s beginning. Just before this article was released, the price level of 2500 CNY and $380 ($375 in exchange tables) was tested at the market.
Without responding to such expectation, we might see a reversal here – a return to a temporary progression and later coming back to the same level, set as a new support level at about $380 and 2500 CNY.
The changes in price remind of a similar return which took place in the middle of April 2015. That time it was accompanied by some sideways consolidation.
In case this increase continues for the medium-term, we will probably see respective changes at the end of week.
This is a political issue, not a technical
Spreading bitcoin protocol – especially solving the recent discussion about the growing data volumes of the blockchain’s blocks of parts – is a much more complicated issue than can be fixed by software updates.
The way out of this issue needs stakeholders of bitcoin to discuss a deal in a context of:
- huge amounts of money out on a limb
- no conclusive arbitrage
- disputes taking place on forums like Reddit, Twitter, and IRC where it’s complicated to sell anybody’s principles.
Currently when the only alternative means self-destruction, different sides can find a consensus – in authorities or even in marriage. The community of bitcoin is not an exception. Fred Wilson, VC, said on this issue: “It’s needed have a crisis sometime to gather everyone together.”
Another issue is the loss this clash has threatened to the image of future cryptocurrency initiatives among a surprisingly poorly informed society. Now the stakes are as high as they’ve never been.
Searching for a balance
The increase in the popularity of blockchain and distributed ledger applications in New York, London, and Washington, DC means this important innovation can become the back-office structure of the world’s financial systems. Understanding how harmful vulnerabilities of the system can be, much attention must be paid to how this new technology is developed.
Now it’s obvious that bitcoin’s issues with governance and scaling have closed the decentralized model’s opportunities of being used by ‘big finance’. However a working balance is somewhere in that scale of decentralization.
Now analysts prefer believing that a validators network, which is synchronized by a federation of different entities, can bring a stable working system.
At the same time there are a lot of experts in cryptocurrency who think that this structure won’t be practical. It’s clear that there needs to be a public discussion of such problems.
Some details have been informed about what R3CEV, new employer of Hearn, is going to do. It has a number of experienced specialists working for it and there’s no doubt that it is trying to bring more stability to the financial system.
It’s worth noticing that its 42 members are so-called “systemically important financial institutions” — international banks known as too big to fail. They are the same institutions that are involved in new fintech company building on bitcoin, Ethereum and other innovative technologies.
Summary: Bitcoin price is trying the $380/$375 and 2500 CNY level for support. If this level stays strong and the price begins increasing we may be witnessing a large wave of advance to follow in a few months. If the current support level is broken then we could expect the price correction that started in December to continue heading lower.