Should I Stay Away from the Markets until the Greece Stuff Is Over?

The short answer is no.

Maybe you could scale back your trading of the euro currency pairs. That’s not a bad idea. They’re kind of dumb, anyway, and it will give you a chance to look at some of the neat things going on right now with the GBP or perhaps even the NOK, ZAR, MXN, and other currenices that no one thinks about (but can be very wonderful to trade).

Greece is important, and the euro is going to get a few days of big volatility out of any resolution to the crisis (or a failure to get a resolution).

The U.S. Markets will react to the Greek crisis over the next 7 days, and of course the European markets will react – but my theory is that whatever the markets are going to do, they are going to do anyway, regardless of what happens in Greece. The USD/JPY looks overbought, the U.S. stock market IS overbought, and a correction (even slight) is overdue, even if the crisis is resolved and the euro holds together.

I went to Greece last week to see things for myself. Half the people I talked to wanted to stay in the euro. The other half wanted to leave. Every person had an opinion. I walked into a 40,000 person demonstration in Athens. I talked to people. They care, they have strong opinions, and no matter what happens, there will be turmoil inside of Greece. I suspect that this turmoil inside of the country will affect the markets – even if the euro holds together.

(Remember, if the euro holds together, many people in Greece will be angry about the austerity measures. If the euro does not hold together, they will make a run on the banks AND they will face austerity measures, anyway. Let’s put it this way: If the euro holds together, Greece will have to cut pensions and raise the VAT; if the euro does not hold together, Greece will have to cut pensions and raise the VAT. There is no way to avoid the fact that the government has to raise revenue and cut spending. This is called “math”.

And one more thing: Let me say it again – if Greece stays with the euro, don’t expect the EUR/USD to go up. And if they leave, don’t expect it to go down. Don’t be so sure that there is one direction based on each decision. Keep in mind that it is possible that a positive decision could be priced in already, and so when the news hits – it could go up or down (200+ pips) either way. So the real power is in patience – wait for the decision, and then let’s see where the EUR/USD goes, and THEN let’s place some trades. But only then.